Great Elm Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.41
| GECC Stock | USD 10.20 0.06 0.59% |
Great |
Great Elm Target Price Odds to finish below 9.41
The tendency of Great Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.41 or more in 90 days |
| 10.20 | 90 days | 9.41 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Great Elm to drop to $ 9.41 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Great Elm Capital probability density function shows the probability of Great Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Great Elm Capital price to stay between $ 9.41 and its current price of $10.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.12 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Great Elm has a beta of 0.49. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Great Elm average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Great Elm Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Great Elm Capital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Great Elm Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Great Elm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great Elm Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great Elm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Great Elm Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Great Elm is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Great Elm's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Great Elm Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Great Elm within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Great Elm Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Great Elm for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Great Elm Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Great Elm Capital currently holds 140.21 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.46, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Great Elm Capital has a current ratio of 0.09, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Great Elm's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| About 43.0% of Great Elm shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Great Elm paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Lucid Capital sets stock target on Great Elm Capital, cites turnaround |
Great Elm Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Great Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Great Elm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Elm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 953 K |
Great Elm Technical Analysis
Great Elm's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Great Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Great Elm Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Great Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Great Elm Predictive Forecast Models
Great Elm's time-series forecasting models is one of many Great Elm's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Great Elm's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Great Elm Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Great Elm for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Great Elm Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Great Elm Capital currently holds 140.21 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.46, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Great Elm Capital has a current ratio of 0.09, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Great Elm's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| About 43.0% of Great Elm shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Great Elm paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Lucid Capital sets stock target on Great Elm Capital, cites turnaround |
Check out Great Elm Backtesting, Great Elm Valuation, Great Elm Correlation, Great Elm Hype Analysis, Great Elm Volatility, Great Elm History as well as Great Elm Performance. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Great Elm. If investors know Great will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Great Elm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share 0.74 | Revenue Per Share 4.352 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.276 |
The market value of Great Elm Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Great that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Great Elm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Great Elm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Great Elm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Great Elm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Great Elm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Great Elm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Great Elm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.