Grupo Gicsa (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.27
| GICSAB Stock | MXN 2.30 0.02 0.88% |
Grupo |
Grupo Gicsa Target Price Odds to finish over 2.27
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 2.27 in 90 days |
| 2.30 | 90 days | 2.27 | about 77.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Gicsa to stay above 2.27 in 90 days from now is about 77.97 (This Grupo Gicsa SA probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grupo Gicsa SA price to stay between 2.27 and its current price of 2.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.97 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Gicsa has a beta of 0.25. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Grupo Gicsa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grupo Gicsa SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Grupo Gicsa SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Grupo Gicsa Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Gicsa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Gicsa SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grupo Gicsa Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Gicsa is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Gicsa's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Gicsa SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Gicsa within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Grupo Gicsa Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Gicsa for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Gicsa SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grupo Gicsa SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Grupo Gicsa SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.87 B. Net Loss for the year was (51.83 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.58 B. | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Grupo Gicsa Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Gicsa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Gicsa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B |
Grupo Gicsa Technical Analysis
Grupo Gicsa's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Gicsa SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Gicsa Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Gicsa's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Gicsa's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Gicsa's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grupo Gicsa SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Gicsa for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Gicsa SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grupo Gicsa SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Grupo Gicsa SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.87 B. Net Loss for the year was (51.83 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.58 B. | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Grupo Stock
Grupo Gicsa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Grupo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Grupo with respect to the benefits of owning Grupo Gicsa security.