GigaMedia (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.47
| GIFN Stock | 1.33 0.02 1.48% |
GigaMedia |
GigaMedia Target Price Odds to finish below 1.47
The tendency of GigaMedia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 1.47 after 90 days |
| 1.33 | 90 days | 1.47 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GigaMedia to stay under 1.47 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This GigaMedia probability density function shows the probability of GigaMedia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GigaMedia price to stay between its current price of 1.33 and 1.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.05 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GigaMedia has a beta of 0.77. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, GigaMedia average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding GigaMedia will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally GigaMedia has an alpha of 0.1429, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GigaMedia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GigaMedia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GigaMedia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GigaMedia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GigaMedia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GigaMedia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GigaMedia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GigaMedia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.77 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
GigaMedia Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GigaMedia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GigaMedia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GigaMedia may become a speculative penny stock | |
| GigaMedia has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 5.49 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| GigaMedia generates negative cash flow from operations |
GigaMedia Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GigaMedia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GigaMedia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GigaMedia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.1 M |
GigaMedia Technical Analysis
GigaMedia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GigaMedia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GigaMedia. In general, you should focus on analyzing GigaMedia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GigaMedia Predictive Forecast Models
GigaMedia's time-series forecasting models is one of many GigaMedia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GigaMedia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GigaMedia
Checking the ongoing alerts about GigaMedia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GigaMedia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GigaMedia may become a speculative penny stock | |
| GigaMedia has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 5.49 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| GigaMedia generates negative cash flow from operations |
Additional Tools for GigaMedia Stock Analysis
When running GigaMedia's price analysis, check to measure GigaMedia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GigaMedia is operating at the current time. Most of GigaMedia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GigaMedia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GigaMedia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GigaMedia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.