GM Breweries (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 701.73
| GMBREW Stock | 792.50 12.80 1.64% |
GMBREW |
GM Breweries Target Price Odds to finish below 701.73
The tendency of GMBREW Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 701.73 or more in 90 days |
| 792.50 | 90 days | 701.73 | about 1.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GM Breweries to drop to 701.73 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.36 (This GM Breweries Limited probability density function shows the probability of GMBREW Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GM Breweries Limited price to stay between 701.73 and its current price of 792.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GM Breweries Limited has a beta of -0.0357. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding GM Breweries are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, GM Breweries Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally GM Breweries Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. GM Breweries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GM Breweries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GM Breweries Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GM Breweries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GM Breweries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GM Breweries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GM Breweries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GM Breweries Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GM Breweries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 64.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
GM Breweries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GM Breweries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GM Breweries Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GM Breweries Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| GM Breweries Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| GM Breweries Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
GM Breweries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GMBREW Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GM Breweries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GM Breweries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 132 M |
GM Breweries Technical Analysis
GM Breweries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GMBREW Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GM Breweries Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing GMBREW Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GM Breweries Predictive Forecast Models
GM Breweries' time-series forecasting models is one of many GM Breweries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GM Breweries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GM Breweries Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about GM Breweries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GM Breweries Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GM Breweries Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| GM Breweries Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| GM Breweries Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in GMBREW Stock
GM Breweries financial ratios help investors to determine whether GMBREW Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GMBREW with respect to the benefits of owning GM Breweries security.