Gurtin National Municipal Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.06
| GNMFX Fund | USD 9.75 0.04 0.41% |
Gurtin |
Gurtin National Target Price Odds to finish below 9.06
The tendency of Gurtin Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.06 or more in 90 days |
| 9.75 | 90 days | 9.06 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gurtin National to drop to $ 9.06 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Gurtin National Municipal probability density function shows the probability of Gurtin Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gurtin National Municipal price to stay between $ 9.06 and its current price of $9.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.68 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Gurtin National has a beta of 0.0468. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gurtin National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gurtin National Municipal will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gurtin National Municipal has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gurtin National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gurtin National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gurtin National Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gurtin National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gurtin National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gurtin National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gurtin National Municipal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gurtin National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Gurtin National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gurtin National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gurtin National Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gurtin National generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund retains about 10.44% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Gurtin National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gurtin Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gurtin National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gurtin National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Gurtin National Technical Analysis
Gurtin National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gurtin Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gurtin National Municipal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gurtin Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gurtin National Predictive Forecast Models
Gurtin National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gurtin National's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gurtin National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gurtin National Municipal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gurtin National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gurtin National Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gurtin National generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund retains about 10.44% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Gurtin Mutual Fund
Gurtin National financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gurtin Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gurtin with respect to the benefits of owning Gurtin National security.
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account |