Grupo Nacional (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 112.14
| GNP Stock | MXN 112.00 28.00 20.00% |
Grupo |
Grupo Nacional Target Price Odds to finish below 112.14
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 112.14 after 90 days |
| 112.00 | 90 days | 112.14 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Nacional to stay under 112.14 after 90 days from now is near 1 (This Grupo Nacional Provincial probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grupo Nacional Provincial price to stay between its current price of 112.00 and 112.14 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Nacional Provincial has a beta of -0.15. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Grupo Nacional are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Grupo Nacional Provincial is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Grupo Nacional Provincial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Grupo Nacional Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Nacional
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Nacional Provincial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grupo Nacional Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Nacional is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Nacional's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Nacional Provincial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Nacional within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Grupo Nacional Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Nacional for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Nacional Provincial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grupo Nacional generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Grupo Nacional Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Nacional's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Nacional's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 223.7 M |
Grupo Nacional Technical Analysis
Grupo Nacional's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Nacional Provincial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Nacional Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Nacional's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Nacional's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Nacional's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grupo Nacional Provincial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Nacional for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Nacional Provincial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grupo Nacional generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for Grupo Stock Analysis
When running Grupo Nacional's price analysis, check to measure Grupo Nacional's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupo Nacional is operating at the current time. Most of Grupo Nacional's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupo Nacional's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupo Nacional's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupo Nacional to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.