Metalurgica Gerdau (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.23
| GOAU3 Stock | BRL 10.93 0.16 1.44% |
Metalurgica |
Metalurgica Gerdau Target Price Odds to finish below 9.23
The tendency of Metalurgica Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 9.23 or more in 90 days |
| 10.93 | 90 days | 9.23 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Metalurgica Gerdau to drop to R$ 9.23 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Metalurgica Gerdau SA probability density function shows the probability of Metalurgica Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Metalurgica Gerdau price to stay between R$ 9.23 and its current price of R$10.93 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Metalurgica Gerdau SA has a beta of -0.0197. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Metalurgica Gerdau are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Metalurgica Gerdau SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Metalurgica Gerdau SA has an alpha of 0.0889, implying that it can generate a 0.0889 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Metalurgica Gerdau Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Metalurgica Gerdau
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metalurgica Gerdau. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Metalurgica Gerdau Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Metalurgica Gerdau is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Metalurgica Gerdau's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Metalurgica Gerdau SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Metalurgica Gerdau within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0073 |
Metalurgica Gerdau Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Metalurgica Gerdau for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Metalurgica Gerdau can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has R$12.92 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Metalurgica Gerdau Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Metalurgica Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Metalurgica Gerdau's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Metalurgica Gerdau's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.6 B |
Metalurgica Gerdau Technical Analysis
Metalurgica Gerdau's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Metalurgica Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Metalurgica Gerdau SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Metalurgica Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Metalurgica Gerdau Predictive Forecast Models
Metalurgica Gerdau's time-series forecasting models is one of many Metalurgica Gerdau's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Metalurgica Gerdau's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Metalurgica Gerdau
Checking the ongoing alerts about Metalurgica Gerdau for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Metalurgica Gerdau help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has R$12.92 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Metalurgica Stock Analysis
When running Metalurgica Gerdau's price analysis, check to measure Metalurgica Gerdau's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Metalurgica Gerdau is operating at the current time. Most of Metalurgica Gerdau's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Metalurgica Gerdau's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Metalurgica Gerdau's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Metalurgica Gerdau to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.