Godrej Consumer (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1215.04
| GODREJCP | 1,245 6.60 0.53% |
Godrej |
Godrej Consumer Target Price Odds to finish over 1215.04
The tendency of Godrej Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 1,215 in 90 days |
| 1,245 | 90 days | 1,215 | about 90.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Godrej Consumer to stay above 1,215 in 90 days from now is about 90.01 (This Godrej Consumer Products probability density function shows the probability of Godrej Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Godrej Consumer Products price to stay between 1,215 and its current price of 1244.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Godrej Consumer has a beta of 0.23. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Godrej Consumer average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Godrej Consumer Products will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Godrej Consumer Products has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Godrej Consumer Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Godrej Consumer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Godrej Consumer Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Godrej Consumer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Godrej Consumer Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Godrej Consumer is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Godrej Consumer's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Godrej Consumer Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Godrej Consumer within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 99.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.25 |
Godrej Consumer Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Godrej Consumer for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Godrej Consumer Products can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Godrej Consumer generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 140.96 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.61 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 61.06 B. | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Godrej Consumer shares gain 0.68 percent as Sensex rises - Economic Times |
Godrej Consumer Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Godrej Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Godrej Consumer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Godrej Consumer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.7 B |
Godrej Consumer Technical Analysis
Godrej Consumer's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Godrej Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Godrej Consumer Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing Godrej Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Godrej Consumer Predictive Forecast Models
Godrej Consumer's time-series forecasting models is one of many Godrej Consumer's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Godrej Consumer's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Godrej Consumer Products
Checking the ongoing alerts about Godrej Consumer for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Godrej Consumer Products help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Godrej Consumer generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 140.96 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.61 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 61.06 B. | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Godrej Consumer shares gain 0.68 percent as Sensex rises - Economic Times |
Other Information on Investing in Godrej Stock
Godrej Consumer financial ratios help investors to determine whether Godrej Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Godrej with respect to the benefits of owning Godrej Consumer security.