Genuine Parts (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 115.89
| GPT Stock | EUR 120.05 0.25 0.21% |
Genuine |
Genuine Parts Target Price Odds to finish below 115.89
The tendency of Genuine Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 115.89 or more in 90 days |
| 120.05 | 90 days | 115.89 | about 30.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Genuine Parts to drop to € 115.89 or more in 90 days from now is about 30.79 (This Genuine Parts probability density function shows the probability of Genuine Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Genuine Parts price to stay between € 115.89 and its current price of €120.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.19 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.59 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Genuine Parts will likely underperform. Additionally Genuine Parts has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Genuine Parts Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Genuine Parts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genuine Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Genuine Parts Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Genuine Parts is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Genuine Parts' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Genuine Parts, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Genuine Parts within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Genuine Parts Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Genuine Parts for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Genuine Parts can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Genuine Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Genuine Parts has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Genuine Parts has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Genuine Parts Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Genuine Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Genuine Parts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genuine Parts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 140.9 M |
Genuine Parts Technical Analysis
Genuine Parts' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Genuine Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Genuine Parts. In general, you should focus on analyzing Genuine Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Genuine Parts Predictive Forecast Models
Genuine Parts' time-series forecasting models is one of many Genuine Parts' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Genuine Parts' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Genuine Parts
Checking the ongoing alerts about Genuine Parts for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Genuine Parts help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Genuine Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Genuine Parts has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Genuine Parts has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in Genuine Stock
Genuine Parts financial ratios help investors to determine whether Genuine Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Genuine with respect to the benefits of owning Genuine Parts security.