Granite Construction (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 103.95
| GRG Stock | 93.00 1.00 1.06% |
Granite |
Granite Construction Target Price Odds to finish over 103.95
The tendency of Granite Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 103.95 or more in 90 days |
| 93.00 | 90 days | 103.95 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Granite Construction to move over 103.95 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Granite Construction probability density function shows the probability of Granite Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Granite Construction price to stay between its current price of 93.00 and 103.95 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.56 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Granite Construction will likely underperform. Additionally Granite Construction has an alpha of 0.3531, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Granite Construction Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Granite Construction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Granite Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Granite Construction Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Granite Construction is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Granite Construction's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Granite Construction, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Granite Construction within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Granite Construction Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Granite Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Granite Construction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Granite Construction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.7 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 23.3 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1.4 M |
Granite Construction Technical Analysis
Granite Construction's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Granite Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Granite Construction. In general, you should focus on analyzing Granite Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Granite Construction Predictive Forecast Models
Granite Construction's time-series forecasting models is one of many Granite Construction's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Granite Construction's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Granite Construction in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Granite Construction's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Granite Construction options trading.
Additional Tools for Granite Stock Analysis
When running Granite Construction's price analysis, check to measure Granite Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Granite Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Granite Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Granite Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Granite Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Granite Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.