Ferroglobe Plc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.5
| GSM Stock | USD 4.39 0.18 3.94% |
Ferroglobe |
Ferroglobe PLC Target Price Odds to finish over 11.5
The tendency of Ferroglobe Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.50 or more in 90 days |
| 4.39 | 90 days | 11.50 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ferroglobe PLC to move over $ 11.50 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Ferroglobe PLC probability density function shows the probability of Ferroglobe Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ferroglobe PLC price to stay between its current price of $ 4.39 and $ 11.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 43.38 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.56 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ferroglobe PLC will likely underperform. Additionally Ferroglobe PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ferroglobe PLC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ferroglobe PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ferroglobe PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ferroglobe PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ferroglobe PLC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ferroglobe PLC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ferroglobe PLC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ferroglobe PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ferroglobe PLC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0024 |
Ferroglobe PLC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ferroglobe PLC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ferroglobe PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 37.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ferroglobe PLC Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Navigating Market Challenges with ... |
Ferroglobe PLC Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ferroglobe Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ferroglobe PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ferroglobe PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 190.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 136.5 M |
Ferroglobe PLC Technical Analysis
Ferroglobe PLC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ferroglobe Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ferroglobe PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ferroglobe Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ferroglobe PLC Predictive Forecast Models
Ferroglobe PLC's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ferroglobe PLC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ferroglobe PLC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ferroglobe PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ferroglobe PLC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ferroglobe PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 37.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ferroglobe PLC Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Navigating Market Challenges with ... |
Check out Ferroglobe PLC Backtesting, Ferroglobe PLC Valuation, Ferroglobe PLC Correlation, Ferroglobe PLC Hype Analysis, Ferroglobe PLC Volatility, Ferroglobe PLC History as well as Ferroglobe PLC Performance. To learn how to invest in Ferroglobe Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ferroglobe PLC guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ferroglobe PLC. If investors know Ferroglobe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ferroglobe PLC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Earnings Share 0.21 | Revenue Per Share 8.785 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.04 | Return On Assets 0.047 |
The market value of Ferroglobe PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ferroglobe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ferroglobe PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ferroglobe PLC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ferroglobe PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ferroglobe PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ferroglobe PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ferroglobe PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ferroglobe PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.