HSBC Holdings (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.61

HBC1 Stock  EUR 9.14  0.03  0.33%   
HSBC Holdings' future price is the expected price of HSBC Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of HSBC Holdings plc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out HSBC Holdings Backtesting, HSBC Holdings Valuation, HSBC Holdings Correlation, HSBC Holdings Hype Analysis, HSBC Holdings Volatility, HSBC Holdings History as well as HSBC Holdings Performance.
  
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HSBC Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 6.61

The tendency of HSBC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above € 6.61  in 90 days
 9.14 90 days 6.61 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HSBC Holdings to stay above € 6.61  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This HSBC Holdings plc probability density function shows the probability of HSBC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HSBC Holdings plc price to stay between € 6.61  and its current price of €9.14 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 97.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon HSBC Holdings has a beta of 0.0436. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, HSBC Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding HSBC Holdings plc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally HSBC Holdings plc has an alpha of 0.2533, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   HSBC Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for HSBC Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HSBC Holdings plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.709.1410.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.9510.3911.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
7.869.2910.73
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
7.618.409.19
Details

HSBC Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HSBC Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HSBC Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HSBC Holdings plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HSBC Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.25
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.04
σ
Overall volatility
0.43
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

HSBC Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of HSBC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential HSBC Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HSBC Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding20 B

HSBC Holdings Technical Analysis

HSBC Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HSBC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HSBC Holdings plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing HSBC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

HSBC Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

HSBC Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many HSBC Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HSBC Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards HSBC Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, HSBC Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from HSBC Holdings options trading.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in HSBC Stock

When determining whether HSBC Holdings plc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of HSBC Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hsbc Holdings Plc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hsbc Holdings Plc Stock:
Check out HSBC Holdings Backtesting, HSBC Holdings Valuation, HSBC Holdings Correlation, HSBC Holdings Hype Analysis, HSBC Holdings Volatility, HSBC Holdings History as well as HSBC Holdings Performance.
You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HSBC Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HSBC Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HSBC Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.