Habib Bank (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 74.73
| HBL Stock | 178.24 4.20 2.30% |
Habib |
Habib Bank Target Price Odds to finish below 74.73
The tendency of Habib Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 74.73 or more in 90 days |
| 178.24 | 90 days | 74.73 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Habib Bank to drop to 74.73 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Habib Bank probability density function shows the probability of Habib Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Habib Bank price to stay between 74.73 and its current price of 178.24 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Habib Bank has a beta of -0.14. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Habib Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Habib Bank is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Habib Bank has an alpha of 0.6918, implying that it can generate a 0.69 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Habib Bank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Habib Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Habib Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Habib Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Habib Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Habib Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Habib Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Habib Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
Habib Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Habib Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Habib Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Habib Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B | |
| Dividends Paid | -10.9 B |
Habib Bank Technical Analysis
Habib Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Habib Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Habib Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Habib Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Habib Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Habib Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Habib Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Habib Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Habib Bank in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Habib Bank's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Habib Bank options trading.
Additional Tools for Habib Stock Analysis
When running Habib Bank's price analysis, check to measure Habib Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Habib Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Habib Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Habib Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Habib Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Habib Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.