Hoteles City (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.93
| HCITY Stock | MXN 4.58 0.02 0.44% |
Hoteles |
Hoteles City Target Price Odds to finish below 1.93
The tendency of Hoteles Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1.93 or more in 90 days |
| 4.58 | 90 days | 1.93 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hoteles City to drop to 1.93 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Hoteles City Express probability density function shows the probability of Hoteles Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hoteles City Express price to stay between 1.93 and its current price of 4.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.17 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hoteles City has a beta of 0.19. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hoteles City average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hoteles City Express will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hoteles City Express has an alpha of 0.0415, implying that it can generate a 0.0415 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hoteles City Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hoteles City
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hoteles City Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hoteles City's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hoteles City Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hoteles City is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hoteles City's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hoteles City Express, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hoteles City within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Hoteles City Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hoteles City for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hoteles City Express can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hoteles City Express had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Hoteles City Express has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Hoteles City Express has accumulated 5.89 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.91, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Hoteles City Express has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Hoteles City until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Hoteles City's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Hoteles City Express sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Hoteles to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Hoteles City's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 2.27 B. Net Loss for the year was (396.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 913.26 M. |
Hoteles City Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hoteles Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hoteles City's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hoteles City's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 403.4 M |
Hoteles City Technical Analysis
Hoteles City's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hoteles Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hoteles City Express. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hoteles Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hoteles City Predictive Forecast Models
Hoteles City's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hoteles City's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hoteles City's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hoteles City Express
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hoteles City for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hoteles City Express help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hoteles City Express had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Hoteles City Express has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Hoteles City Express has accumulated 5.89 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.91, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Hoteles City Express has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Hoteles City until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Hoteles City's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Hoteles City Express sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Hoteles to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Hoteles City's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 2.27 B. Net Loss for the year was (396.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 913.26 M. |
Other Information on Investing in Hoteles Stock
Hoteles City financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hoteles Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hoteles with respect to the benefits of owning Hoteles City security.