Hutchmed Drc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.44
| HCM Stock | USD 16.95 1.48 8.03% |
HUTCHMED |
HUTCHMED DRC Target Price Odds to finish below 17.44
The tendency of HUTCHMED Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 17.44 after 90 days |
| 16.95 | 90 days | 17.44 | about 25.9 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HUTCHMED DRC to stay under $ 17.44 after 90 days from now is about 25.9 (This HUTCHMED DRC probability density function shows the probability of HUTCHMED Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HUTCHMED DRC price to stay between its current price of $ 16.95 and $ 17.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.35 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon HUTCHMED DRC has a beta of 0.51. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, HUTCHMED DRC average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding HUTCHMED DRC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally HUTCHMED DRC has an alpha of 0.0752, implying that it can generate a 0.0752 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). HUTCHMED DRC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for HUTCHMED DRC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HUTCHMED DRC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HUTCHMED DRC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HUTCHMED DRC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HUTCHMED DRC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HUTCHMED DRC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HUTCHMED DRC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HUTCHMED DRC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
HUTCHMED DRC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of HUTCHMED DRC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for HUTCHMED DRC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| HUTCHMED DRC had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| HUTCHMED DRC is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: HUTCHMED Announces Launch by Takeda of FRUZAQLA |
HUTCHMED DRC Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of HUTCHMED Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential HUTCHMED DRC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HUTCHMED DRC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 173.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 886.3 M |
HUTCHMED DRC Technical Analysis
HUTCHMED DRC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HUTCHMED Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HUTCHMED DRC. In general, you should focus on analyzing HUTCHMED Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HUTCHMED DRC Predictive Forecast Models
HUTCHMED DRC's time-series forecasting models is one of many HUTCHMED DRC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HUTCHMED DRC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about HUTCHMED DRC
Checking the ongoing alerts about HUTCHMED DRC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for HUTCHMED DRC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| HUTCHMED DRC had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| HUTCHMED DRC is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: HUTCHMED Announces Launch by Takeda of FRUZAQLA |
Check out HUTCHMED DRC Backtesting, HUTCHMED DRC Valuation, HUTCHMED DRC Correlation, HUTCHMED DRC Hype Analysis, HUTCHMED DRC Volatility, HUTCHMED DRC History as well as HUTCHMED DRC Performance. To learn how to invest in HUTCHMED Stock, please use our How to Invest in HUTCHMED DRC guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HUTCHMED DRC. If investors know HUTCHMED will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HUTCHMED DRC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Earnings Share (0.25) | Revenue Per Share 3.575 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.43) | Return On Assets (0.06) |
The market value of HUTCHMED DRC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HUTCHMED that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HUTCHMED DRC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HUTCHMED DRC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HUTCHMED DRC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HUTCHMED DRC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HUTCHMED DRC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HUTCHMED DRC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HUTCHMED DRC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.