Huntington Ingalls Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 198.02

HII Stock  USD 190.98  2.27  1.17%   
Huntington Ingalls' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Huntington Ingalls Industries. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Huntington Ingalls based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Huntington Ingalls Industries over a specific time period. For example, HII Option Call 20-12-2024 190 is a CALL option contract on Huntington Ingalls' common stock with a strick price of 190.0 expiring on 2024-12-20. The contract was last traded on 2024-12-10 at 15:39:06 for $4.5 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at an ask price of $0.0. The implied volatility as of the 11th of December 2024 is 9.0. View All Huntington options

Closest to current price Huntington long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Huntington Ingalls' future price is the expected price of Huntington Ingalls instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Huntington Ingalls Industries performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Huntington Ingalls Backtesting, Huntington Ingalls Valuation, Huntington Ingalls Correlation, Huntington Ingalls Hype Analysis, Huntington Ingalls Volatility, Huntington Ingalls History as well as Huntington Ingalls Performance.
  
As of now, Huntington Ingalls' Price Fair Value is increasing as compared to previous years. Please specify Huntington Ingalls' target price for which you would like Huntington Ingalls odds to be computed.

Huntington Ingalls Target Price Odds to finish below 198.02

The tendency of Huntington Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 198.02  after 90 days
 190.98 90 days 198.02 
about 14.99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Huntington Ingalls to stay under $ 198.02  after 90 days from now is about 14.99 (This Huntington Ingalls Industries probability density function shows the probability of Huntington Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Huntington Ingalls price to stay between its current price of $ 190.98  and $ 198.02  at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.54 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.03 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Huntington Ingalls will likely underperform. Additionally Huntington Ingalls Industries has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Huntington Ingalls Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Huntington Ingalls

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Huntington Ingalls. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
187.88191.51195.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
171.88226.95230.58
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
178.05181.68185.32
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
223.45245.55272.56
Details

Huntington Ingalls Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Huntington Ingalls is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Huntington Ingalls' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Huntington Ingalls Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Huntington Ingalls within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.67
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.03
σ
Overall volatility
32.16
Ir
Information ratio -0.15

Huntington Ingalls Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Huntington Ingalls for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Huntington Ingalls can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Huntington Ingalls generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Huntington Ingalls has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Huntington Ingalls has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc Announces New Vice President of Quality and Engineering

Huntington Ingalls Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Huntington Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Huntington Ingalls' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Huntington Ingalls' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding39.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments430 M

Huntington Ingalls Technical Analysis

Huntington Ingalls' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Huntington Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Huntington Ingalls Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Huntington Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Huntington Ingalls Predictive Forecast Models

Huntington Ingalls' time-series forecasting models is one of many Huntington Ingalls' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Huntington Ingalls' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Huntington Ingalls

Checking the ongoing alerts about Huntington Ingalls for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Huntington Ingalls help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Huntington Ingalls generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Huntington Ingalls has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Huntington Ingalls has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc Announces New Vice President of Quality and Engineering
When determining whether Huntington Ingalls offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Huntington Ingalls' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Huntington Ingalls Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Huntington Ingalls Industries Stock:
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Huntington Ingalls. If investors know Huntington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Huntington Ingalls listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.31)
Dividend Share
5.2
Earnings Share
17.7
Revenue Per Share
296.218
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of Huntington Ingalls is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Huntington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Huntington Ingalls' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Huntington Ingalls' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Huntington Ingalls' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Huntington Ingalls' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Huntington Ingalls' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Huntington Ingalls is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Huntington Ingalls' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.