Home Depot (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 88.96
| HOME34 Stock | BRL 90.36 1.44 1.62% |
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Home Depot Target Price Odds to finish below 88.96
The tendency of Home Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 88.96 or more in 90 days |
| 90.36 | 90 days | 88.96 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Home Depot to drop to R$ 88.96 or more in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This The Home Depot probability density function shows the probability of Home Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Home Depot price to stay between R$ 88.96 and its current price of R$90.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon The Home Depot has a beta of -0.0842. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Home Depot are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, The Home Depot is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The Home Depot has an alpha of 0.3521, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Home Depot Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Home Depot
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Depot. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Home Depot Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Home Depot is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Home Depot's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Home Depot, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Home Depot within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Home Depot Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Home Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Home Depot's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Depot's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.3 B |
Home Depot Technical Analysis
Home Depot's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Home Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Home Depot. In general, you should focus on analyzing Home Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Home Depot Predictive Forecast Models
Home Depot's time-series forecasting models is one of many Home Depot's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Home Depot's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Home Depot in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Home Depot's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Home Depot options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Home Stock
Home Depot financial ratios help investors to determine whether Home Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Home with respect to the benefits of owning Home Depot security.