Desarrolladora Homex (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.93E-4
| HOMEX Stock | MXN 0 0.00 0.00% |
Desarrolladora |
Desarrolladora Homex Target Price Odds to finish below 8.93E-4
The tendency of Desarrolladora Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.0009 or more in 90 days |
| 0 | 90 days | 0.0009 | about 6.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Desarrolladora Homex to drop to 0.0009 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.81 (This Desarrolladora Homex SAB probability density function shows the probability of Desarrolladora Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Desarrolladora Homex SAB price to stay between 0.0009 and its current price of 0.001 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.74 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Desarrolladora Homex SAB has a beta of -1.3. This usually indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Desarrolladora Homex SAB are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Desarrolladora Homex is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Desarrolladora Homex SAB has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Desarrolladora Homex Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Desarrolladora Homex
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Desarrolladora Homex SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Desarrolladora Homex's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Desarrolladora Homex Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Desarrolladora Homex is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Desarrolladora Homex's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Desarrolladora Homex SAB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Desarrolladora Homex within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.3 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.0009 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Desarrolladora Homex Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Desarrolladora Homex for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Desarrolladora Homex SAB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Desarrolladora Homex generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Desarrolladora Homex has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Desarrolladora Homex has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Desarrolladora Homex has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Desarrolladora Homex SAB has accumulated 22.65 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 3.72, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Desarrolladora Homex SAB has a current ratio of 0.28, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Desarrolladora Homex until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Desarrolladora Homex's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Desarrolladora Homex SAB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Desarrolladora to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Desarrolladora Homex's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Desarrolladora Homex Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Desarrolladora Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Desarrolladora Homex's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Desarrolladora Homex's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.6 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 53.8 M |
Desarrolladora Homex Technical Analysis
Desarrolladora Homex's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Desarrolladora Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Desarrolladora Homex SAB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Desarrolladora Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Desarrolladora Homex Predictive Forecast Models
Desarrolladora Homex's time-series forecasting models is one of many Desarrolladora Homex's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Desarrolladora Homex's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Desarrolladora Homex SAB
Checking the ongoing alerts about Desarrolladora Homex for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Desarrolladora Homex SAB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Desarrolladora Homex generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Desarrolladora Homex has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Desarrolladora Homex has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Desarrolladora Homex has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Desarrolladora Homex SAB has accumulated 22.65 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 3.72, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Desarrolladora Homex SAB has a current ratio of 0.28, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Desarrolladora Homex until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Desarrolladora Homex's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Desarrolladora Homex SAB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Desarrolladora to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Desarrolladora Homex's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in Desarrolladora Stock
Desarrolladora Homex financial ratios help investors to determine whether Desarrolladora Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Desarrolladora with respect to the benefits of owning Desarrolladora Homex security.