Hortico SA (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.35
| HOR Stock | 6.45 0.05 0.77% |
Hortico |
Hortico SA Target Price Odds to finish below 6.35
The tendency of Hortico Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 6.35 or more in 90 days |
| 6.45 | 90 days | 6.35 | about 57.47 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hortico SA to drop to 6.35 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.47 (This Hortico SA probability density function shows the probability of Hortico Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hortico SA price to stay between 6.35 and its current price of 6.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.77 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hortico SA has a beta of 0.14. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hortico SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hortico SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hortico SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Hortico SA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Hortico SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hortico SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hortico SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hortico SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hortico SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hortico SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hortico SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hortico SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0051 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Hortico SA Technical Analysis
Hortico SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hortico Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hortico SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hortico Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hortico SA Predictive Forecast Models
Hortico SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hortico SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hortico SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hortico SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hortico SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hortico SA options trading.
Additional Tools for Hortico Stock Analysis
When running Hortico SA's price analysis, check to measure Hortico SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hortico SA is operating at the current time. Most of Hortico SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hortico SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hortico SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hortico SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.