Hawthorn Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.11
| HWBK Stock | USD 30.90 1.14 3.56% |
Hawthorn |
Hawthorn Bancshares Target Price Odds to finish below 22.11
The tendency of Hawthorn Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 22.11 or more in 90 days |
| 30.90 | 90 days | 22.11 | about 7.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hawthorn Bancshares to drop to $ 22.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 7.85 (This Hawthorn Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of Hawthorn Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hawthorn Bancshares price to stay between $ 22.11 and its current price of $30.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.82 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Hawthorn Bancshares has a beta of 0.17. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hawthorn Bancshares average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hawthorn Bancshares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hawthorn Bancshares has an alpha of 0.4147, implying that it can generate a 0.41 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hawthorn Bancshares Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hawthorn Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hawthorn Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hawthorn Bancshares Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hawthorn Bancshares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hawthorn Bancshares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hawthorn Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hawthorn Bancshares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Hawthorn Bancshares Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hawthorn Bancshares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hawthorn Bancshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1817 shares by Holtaway Jonathan of Hawthorn Bancshares at 32.21 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Hawthorn Bancshares Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hawthorn Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hawthorn Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hawthorn Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.5 M |
Hawthorn Bancshares Technical Analysis
Hawthorn Bancshares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hawthorn Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hawthorn Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hawthorn Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hawthorn Bancshares Predictive Forecast Models
Hawthorn Bancshares' time-series forecasting models is one of many Hawthorn Bancshares' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hawthorn Bancshares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hawthorn Bancshares
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hawthorn Bancshares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hawthorn Bancshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1817 shares by Holtaway Jonathan of Hawthorn Bancshares at 32.21 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Hawthorn Bancshares Backtesting, Hawthorn Bancshares Valuation, Hawthorn Bancshares Correlation, Hawthorn Bancshares Hype Analysis, Hawthorn Bancshares Volatility, Hawthorn Bancshares History as well as Hawthorn Bancshares Performance. For more information on how to buy Hawthorn Stock please use our How to buy in Hawthorn Stock guide.You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hawthorn Bancshares. If investors know Hawthorn will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hawthorn Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.819 | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 0.9 | Revenue Per Share 8.314 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.126 |
The market value of Hawthorn Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hawthorn that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hawthorn Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hawthorn Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hawthorn Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hawthorn Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hawthorn Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hawthorn Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hawthorn Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.