SIMS METAL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.32
| I8M Stock | EUR 7.70 0.25 3.14% |
SIMS |
SIMS METAL Target Price Odds to finish below 5.32
The tendency of SIMS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 5.32 or more in 90 days |
| 7.70 | 90 days | 5.32 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SIMS METAL to drop to € 5.32 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This SIMS METAL MGT probability density function shows the probability of SIMS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SIMS METAL MGT price to stay between € 5.32 and its current price of €7.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.05 . This usually indicates SIMS METAL MGT market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, SIMS METAL is expected to follow. Additionally SIMS METAL MGT has an alpha of 0.2159, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). SIMS METAL Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for SIMS METAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SIMS METAL MGT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SIMS METAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SIMS METAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SIMS METAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SIMS METAL MGT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SIMS METAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
SIMS METAL Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of SIMS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential SIMS METAL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SIMS METAL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192.5 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.05 | |
| Short Term Investments | 15.6 M |
SIMS METAL Technical Analysis
SIMS METAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SIMS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SIMS METAL MGT. In general, you should focus on analyzing SIMS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SIMS METAL Predictive Forecast Models
SIMS METAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many SIMS METAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SIMS METAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards SIMS METAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, SIMS METAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from SIMS METAL options trading.
Other Information on Investing in SIMS Stock
SIMS METAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether SIMS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SIMS with respect to the benefits of owning SIMS METAL security.