Ittehad Chemicals (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 50.59
| ICL Stock | 67.63 0.09 0.13% |
Ittehad |
Ittehad Chemicals Target Price Odds to finish below 50.59
The tendency of Ittehad Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 50.59 or more in 90 days |
| 67.63 | 90 days | 50.59 | about 79.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ittehad Chemicals to drop to 50.59 or more in 90 days from now is about 79.23 (This Ittehad Chemicals probability density function shows the probability of Ittehad Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ittehad Chemicals price to stay between 50.59 and its current price of 67.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.66 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ittehad Chemicals has a beta of 0.6. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Ittehad Chemicals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ittehad Chemicals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ittehad Chemicals has an alpha of 0.5869, implying that it can generate a 0.59 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ittehad Chemicals Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ittehad Chemicals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ittehad Chemicals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ittehad Chemicals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ittehad Chemicals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ittehad Chemicals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ittehad Chemicals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ittehad Chemicals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Ittehad Chemicals Technical Analysis
Ittehad Chemicals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ittehad Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ittehad Chemicals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ittehad Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ittehad Chemicals Predictive Forecast Models
Ittehad Chemicals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ittehad Chemicals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ittehad Chemicals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ittehad Chemicals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ittehad Chemicals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ittehad Chemicals options trading.
Additional Tools for Ittehad Stock Analysis
When running Ittehad Chemicals' price analysis, check to measure Ittehad Chemicals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ittehad Chemicals is operating at the current time. Most of Ittehad Chemicals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ittehad Chemicals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ittehad Chemicals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ittehad Chemicals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.