Greenfirst Forest Products Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 2.6
| ICLTF Stock | USD 3.95 0.05 1.25% |
GreenFirst |
GreenFirst Forest Target Price Odds to finish below 2.6
The tendency of GreenFirst Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 2.60 or more in 90 days |
| 3.95 | 90 days | 2.60 | about 5.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GreenFirst Forest to drop to $ 2.60 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.08 (This GreenFirst Forest Products probability density function shows the probability of GreenFirst Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GreenFirst Forest price to stay between $ 2.60 and its current price of $3.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.32 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon GreenFirst Forest Products has a beta of -0.41. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding GreenFirst Forest are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, GreenFirst Forest Products is likely to outperform the market. Additionally GreenFirst Forest Products has an alpha of 0.8903, implying that it can generate a 0.89 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GreenFirst Forest Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GreenFirst Forest
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GreenFirst Forest. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GreenFirst Forest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GreenFirst Forest Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GreenFirst Forest is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GreenFirst Forest's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GreenFirst Forest Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GreenFirst Forest within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.89 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
GreenFirst Forest Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GreenFirst Forest for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GreenFirst Forest can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GreenFirst Forest is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GreenFirst Forest appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| GreenFirst Forest has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 190.48 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.62 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 28.25 M. | |
| About 38.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
GreenFirst Forest Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GreenFirst Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GreenFirst Forest's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GreenFirst Forest's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 177.6 M |
GreenFirst Forest Technical Analysis
GreenFirst Forest's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GreenFirst Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GreenFirst Forest Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing GreenFirst Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GreenFirst Forest Predictive Forecast Models
GreenFirst Forest's time-series forecasting models is one of many GreenFirst Forest's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GreenFirst Forest's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GreenFirst Forest
Checking the ongoing alerts about GreenFirst Forest for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GreenFirst Forest help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GreenFirst Forest is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GreenFirst Forest appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| GreenFirst Forest has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 190.48 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.62 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 28.25 M. | |
| About 38.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in GreenFirst Pink Sheet
GreenFirst Forest financial ratios help investors to determine whether GreenFirst Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GreenFirst with respect to the benefits of owning GreenFirst Forest security.