IDFC First (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 59.51
| IDFCFIRSTB | 65.20 0.81 1.26% |
IDFC |
IDFC First Target Price Odds to finish below 59.51
The tendency of IDFC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 59.51 or more in 90 days |
| 65.20 | 90 days | 59.51 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of IDFC First to drop to 59.51 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This IDFC First Bank probability density function shows the probability of IDFC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of IDFC First Bank price to stay between 59.51 and its current price of 65.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon IDFC First has a beta of 0.31. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, IDFC First average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding IDFC First Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally IDFC First Bank has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. IDFC First Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for IDFC First
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IDFC First Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.IDFC First Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. IDFC First is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the IDFC First's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold IDFC First Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of IDFC First within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
IDFC First Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of IDFC First for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for IDFC First Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| IDFC First Bank generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| IDFC First Bank is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: IDFC FIRST Bank allots 1.74 lakh equity shares under ESOS - Business Standard |
IDFC First Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of IDFC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential IDFC First's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IDFC First's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 124.8 B |
IDFC First Technical Analysis
IDFC First's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. IDFC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of IDFC First Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing IDFC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
IDFC First Predictive Forecast Models
IDFC First's time-series forecasting models is one of many IDFC First's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary IDFC First's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about IDFC First Bank
Checking the ongoing alerts about IDFC First for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for IDFC First Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| IDFC First Bank generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| IDFC First Bank is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: IDFC FIRST Bank allots 1.74 lakh equity shares under ESOS - Business Standard |
Additional Tools for IDFC Stock Analysis
When running IDFC First's price analysis, check to measure IDFC First's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy IDFC First is operating at the current time. Most of IDFC First's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of IDFC First's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move IDFC First's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of IDFC First to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.