Ignitis Grupe (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.85
| IGN Stock | 18.80 0.10 0.53% |
Ignitis |
Ignitis Grupe Target Price Odds to finish below 18.85
The tendency of Ignitis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 18.85 after 90 days |
| 18.80 | 90 days | 18.85 | about 69.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ignitis Grupe to stay under 18.85 after 90 days from now is about 69.38 (This Ignitis Grupe AB probability density function shows the probability of Ignitis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ignitis Grupe AB price to stay between its current price of 18.80 and 18.85 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.62 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ignitis Grupe AB has a beta of -0.2. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ignitis Grupe are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ignitis Grupe AB is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ignitis Grupe AB has an alpha of 0.1432, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ignitis Grupe Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ignitis Grupe
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ignitis Grupe AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ignitis Grupe Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ignitis Grupe is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ignitis Grupe's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ignitis Grupe AB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ignitis Grupe within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0072 |
Ignitis Grupe Technical Analysis
Ignitis Grupe's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ignitis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ignitis Grupe AB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ignitis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ignitis Grupe Predictive Forecast Models
Ignitis Grupe's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ignitis Grupe's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ignitis Grupe's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ignitis Grupe in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ignitis Grupe's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ignitis Grupe options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Ignitis Stock
Ignitis Grupe financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ignitis Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ignitis with respect to the benefits of owning Ignitis Grupe security.