Intel (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.40

INL Stock   20.90  0.73  3.37%   
Intel's future price is the expected price of Intel instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Intel performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Intel Backtesting, Intel Valuation, Intel Correlation, Intel Hype Analysis, Intel Volatility, Intel History as well as Intel Performance.
For more information on how to buy Intel Stock please use our How to Invest in Intel guide.
  
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Intel Target Price Odds to finish below 18.40

The tendency of Intel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  18.40  or more in 90 days
 20.90 90 days 18.40 
about 9.37
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Intel to drop to  18.40  or more in 90 days from now is about 9.37 (This Intel probability density function shows the probability of Intel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Intel price to stay between  18.40  and its current price of 20.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.53 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Intel has a beta of 0.5. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Intel average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Intel will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Intel has an alpha of 0.223, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Intel Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Intel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.2721.6324.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.4317.7923.79
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.6521.0124.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
21.4122.3523.29
Details

Intel Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Intel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Intel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Intel, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Intel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.22
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.50
σ
Overall volatility
1.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

Intel Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Intel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Intel can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Intel had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Intel Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Intel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Intel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Intel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments28.3 B

Intel Technical Analysis

Intel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Intel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Intel. In general, you should focus on analyzing Intel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Intel Predictive Forecast Models

Intel's time-series forecasting models is one of many Intel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Intel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Intel

Checking the ongoing alerts about Intel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Intel help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Intel had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Additional Tools for Intel Stock Analysis

When running Intel's price analysis, check to measure Intel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Intel is operating at the current time. Most of Intel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Intel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Intel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Intel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.