IMPERIAL TOBACCO (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.46
| ITB Stock | EUR 30.79 0.32 1.03% |
IMPERIAL |
IMPERIAL TOBACCO Target Price Odds to finish below 27.46
The tendency of IMPERIAL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 27.46 or more in 90 days |
| 30.79 | 90 days | 27.46 | about 65.48 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of IMPERIAL TOBACCO to drop to € 27.46 or more in 90 days from now is about 65.48 (This IMPERIAL TOBACCO probability density function shows the probability of IMPERIAL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of IMPERIAL TOBACCO price to stay between € 27.46 and its current price of €30.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon IMPERIAL TOBACCO has a beta of -0.25. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding IMPERIAL TOBACCO are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, IMPERIAL TOBACCO is likely to outperform the market. Additionally IMPERIAL TOBACCO has an alpha of 0.348, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). IMPERIAL TOBACCO Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for IMPERIAL TOBACCO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IMPERIAL TOBACCO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.IMPERIAL TOBACCO Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. IMPERIAL TOBACCO is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the IMPERIAL TOBACCO's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold IMPERIAL TOBACCO , one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of IMPERIAL TOBACCO within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
IMPERIAL TOBACCO Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of IMPERIAL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential IMPERIAL TOBACCO's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IMPERIAL TOBACCO's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 950.4 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0755 | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1 B |
IMPERIAL TOBACCO Technical Analysis
IMPERIAL TOBACCO's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. IMPERIAL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of IMPERIAL TOBACCO . In general, you should focus on analyzing IMPERIAL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
IMPERIAL TOBACCO Predictive Forecast Models
IMPERIAL TOBACCO's time-series forecasting models is one of many IMPERIAL TOBACCO's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary IMPERIAL TOBACCO's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards IMPERIAL TOBACCO in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, IMPERIAL TOBACCO's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from IMPERIAL TOBACCO options trading.
Additional Tools for IMPERIAL Stock Analysis
When running IMPERIAL TOBACCO's price analysis, check to measure IMPERIAL TOBACCO's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy IMPERIAL TOBACCO is operating at the current time. Most of IMPERIAL TOBACCO's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of IMPERIAL TOBACCO's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move IMPERIAL TOBACCO's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of IMPERIAL TOBACCO to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.