Imperial Brands (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 30.61
| ITB Stock | EUR 30.75 0.44 1.41% |
Imperial |
Imperial Brands Target Price Odds to finish over 30.61
The tendency of Imperial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 30.61 in 90 days |
| 30.75 | 90 days | 30.61 | about 1.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Imperial Brands to stay above € 30.61 in 90 days from now is about 1.94 (This Imperial Brands PLC probability density function shows the probability of Imperial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Imperial Brands PLC price to stay between € 30.61 and its current price of €30.75 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Imperial Brands PLC has a beta of -0.3. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Imperial Brands are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Imperial Brands PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Imperial Brands PLC has an alpha of 0.3218, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Imperial Brands Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Imperial Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Imperial Brands PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Imperial Brands Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Imperial Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Imperial Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Imperial Brands PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Imperial Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Imperial Brands Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Imperial Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Imperial Brands PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Imperial Brands PLC has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Imperial Brands PLC has accumulated 9 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 241.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Imperial Brands PLC has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Imperial Brands until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Imperial Brands' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Imperial Brands PLC sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Imperial to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Imperial Brands' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 66.0% of Imperial Brands shares are owned by institutional investors |
Imperial Brands Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Imperial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Imperial Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Imperial Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 950.4 M |
Imperial Brands Technical Analysis
Imperial Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Imperial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Imperial Brands PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Imperial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Imperial Brands Predictive Forecast Models
Imperial Brands' time-series forecasting models is one of many Imperial Brands' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Imperial Brands' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Imperial Brands PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Imperial Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Imperial Brands PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Imperial Brands PLC has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Imperial Brands PLC has accumulated 9 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 241.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Imperial Brands PLC has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Imperial Brands until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Imperial Brands' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Imperial Brands PLC sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Imperial to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Imperial Brands' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 66.0% of Imperial Brands shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in Imperial Stock
Imperial Brands financial ratios help investors to determine whether Imperial Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Imperial with respect to the benefits of owning Imperial Brands security.