Invesco Mortgage Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.11
| IVR Stock | USD 8.20 0.09 1.11% |
Invesco |
Invesco Mortgage Target Price Odds to finish below 8.11
The tendency of Invesco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 8.11 or more in 90 days |
| 8.20 | 90 days | 8.11 | about 8.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Invesco Mortgage to drop to $ 8.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.96 (This Invesco Mortgage Capital probability density function shows the probability of Invesco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Invesco Mortgage Capital price to stay between $ 8.11 and its current price of $8.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.77 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Invesco Mortgage has a beta of 0.37. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Invesco Mortgage average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Invesco Mortgage Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Invesco Mortgage Capital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Invesco Mortgage Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Invesco Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Mortgage Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Invesco Mortgage Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Invesco Mortgage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Invesco Mortgage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Invesco Mortgage Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Invesco Mortgage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Invesco Mortgage Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Invesco Mortgage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Invesco Mortgage Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Invesco Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Invesco Mortgage has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Invesco Mortgage Capital has 4.46 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.11, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Invesco Mortgage Capital has a current ratio of 0.08, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Invesco to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 4.19 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (15.86 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (377.6 M). | |
| Invesco Mortgage has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 25th of October 2024 Invesco Mortgage paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Disposition of tradable shares by Stephanie Botha of Invesco Mortgage subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Invesco Mortgage Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Invesco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Invesco Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Invesco Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 77 M |
Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis
Invesco Mortgage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Invesco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Invesco Mortgage Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Invesco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Invesco Mortgage Predictive Forecast Models
Invesco Mortgage's time-series forecasting models is one of many Invesco Mortgage's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Invesco Mortgage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Invesco Mortgage Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Invesco Mortgage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Invesco Mortgage Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Invesco Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Invesco Mortgage has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Invesco Mortgage Capital has 4.46 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.11, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Invesco Mortgage Capital has a current ratio of 0.08, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Invesco to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 4.19 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (15.86 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (377.6 M). | |
| Invesco Mortgage has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 25th of October 2024 Invesco Mortgage paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Disposition of tradable shares by Stephanie Botha of Invesco Mortgage subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for Invesco Stock Analysis
When running Invesco Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure Invesco Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Invesco Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of Invesco Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Invesco Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Invesco Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Invesco Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.