JAPAN TOBACCO (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.57
| JATA Stock | EUR 12.40 0.20 1.59% |
JAPAN |
JAPAN TOBACCO Target Price Odds to finish below 12.57
The tendency of JAPAN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 12.57 after 90 days |
| 12.40 | 90 days | 12.57 | about 66.52 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JAPAN TOBACCO to stay under € 12.57 after 90 days from now is about 66.52 (This JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12 probability density function shows the probability of JAPAN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12 price to stay between its current price of € 12.40 and € 12.57 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.48 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12 has a beta of -0.18. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding JAPAN TOBACCO are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12 has an alpha of 0.0243, implying that it can generate a 0.0243 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). JAPAN TOBACCO Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for JAPAN TOBACCO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JAPAN TOBACCO Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JAPAN TOBACCO is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JAPAN TOBACCO's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JAPAN TOBACCO within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
JAPAN TOBACCO Technical Analysis
JAPAN TOBACCO's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JAPAN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JAPAN TOBACCO UNSPADR12. In general, you should focus on analyzing JAPAN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JAPAN TOBACCO Predictive Forecast Models
JAPAN TOBACCO's time-series forecasting models is one of many JAPAN TOBACCO's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JAPAN TOBACCO's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JAPAN TOBACCO in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JAPAN TOBACCO's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JAPAN TOBACCO options trading.
Other Information on Investing in JAPAN Stock
JAPAN TOBACCO financial ratios help investors to determine whether JAPAN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in JAPAN with respect to the benefits of owning JAPAN TOBACCO security.