Armada Berjaya (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 103.4
| JAYA Stock | 94.00 0.00 0.00% |
Armada |
Armada Berjaya Target Price Odds to finish over 103.4
The tendency of Armada Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 103.40 or more in 90 days |
| 94.00 | 90 days | 103.40 | about 60.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Armada Berjaya to move over 103.40 or more in 90 days from now is about 60.76 (This Armada Berjaya Trans probability density function shows the probability of Armada Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Armada Berjaya Trans price to stay between its current price of 94.00 and 103.40 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.01 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Armada Berjaya Trans has a beta of -0.68. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Armada Berjaya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Armada Berjaya Trans is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Armada Berjaya Trans has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Armada Berjaya Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Armada Berjaya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Armada Berjaya Trans. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Armada Berjaya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Armada Berjaya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Armada Berjaya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Armada Berjaya Trans, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Armada Berjaya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Armada Berjaya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Armada Berjaya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Armada Berjaya Trans can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Armada Berjaya Trans generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Armada Berjaya Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Armada Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Armada Berjaya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Armada Berjaya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 750 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.5 B |
Armada Berjaya Technical Analysis
Armada Berjaya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Armada Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Armada Berjaya Trans. In general, you should focus on analyzing Armada Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Armada Berjaya Predictive Forecast Models
Armada Berjaya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Armada Berjaya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Armada Berjaya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Armada Berjaya Trans
Checking the ongoing alerts about Armada Berjaya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Armada Berjaya Trans help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Armada Berjaya Trans generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Armada Stock
Armada Berjaya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Armada Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Armada with respect to the benefits of owning Armada Berjaya security.