JULIUS BERGER (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 161.29
| JBERGER Stock | 155.25 0.00 0.00% |
JULIUS |
JULIUS BERGER Target Price Odds to finish over 161.29
The tendency of JULIUS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 161.29 or more in 90 days |
| 155.25 | 90 days | 161.29 | about 53.73 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JULIUS BERGER to move over 161.29 or more in 90 days from now is about 53.73 (This JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA probability density function shows the probability of JULIUS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA price to stay between its current price of 155.25 and 161.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.26 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA has a beta of -0.11. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding JULIUS BERGER are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA has an alpha of 0.1697, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). JULIUS BERGER Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for JULIUS BERGER
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JULIUS BERGER. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JULIUS BERGER's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JULIUS BERGER's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA.JULIUS BERGER Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JULIUS BERGER is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JULIUS BERGER's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JULIUS BERGER within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
JULIUS BERGER Technical Analysis
JULIUS BERGER's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JULIUS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JULIUS BERGER NIGERIA. In general, you should focus on analyzing JULIUS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JULIUS BERGER Predictive Forecast Models
JULIUS BERGER's time-series forecasting models is one of many JULIUS BERGER's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JULIUS BERGER's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JULIUS BERGER in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JULIUS BERGER's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JULIUS BERGER options trading.
Additional Tools for JULIUS Stock Analysis
When running JULIUS BERGER's price analysis, check to measure JULIUS BERGER's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JULIUS BERGER is operating at the current time. Most of JULIUS BERGER's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JULIUS BERGER's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JULIUS BERGER's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JULIUS BERGER to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.