JBS ON (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.85
| JBSS3F Stock | BRL 35.52 0.88 2.54% |
JBS |
JBS ON Target Price Odds to finish below 33.85
The tendency of JBS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 33.85 or more in 90 days |
| 35.52 | 90 days | 33.85 | about 41.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JBS ON to drop to R$ 33.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 41.81 (This JBS ON NM probability density function shows the probability of JBS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JBS ON NM price to stay between R$ 33.85 and its current price of R$35.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon JBS ON has a beta of 0.32. This indicates as returns on the market go up, JBS ON average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding JBS ON NM will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally JBS ON NM has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. JBS ON Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for JBS ON
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JBS ON NM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JBS ON Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JBS ON is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JBS ON's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JBS ON NM, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JBS ON within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
JBS ON Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JBS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JBS ON's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JBS ON's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 7.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24 B |
JBS ON Technical Analysis
JBS ON's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JBS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JBS ON NM. In general, you should focus on analyzing JBS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JBS ON Predictive Forecast Models
JBS ON's time-series forecasting models is one of many JBS ON's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JBS ON's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JBS ON in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JBS ON's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JBS ON options trading.
Other Information on Investing in JBS Stock
JBS ON financial ratios help investors to determine whether JBS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in JBS with respect to the benefits of owning JBS ON security.