Jefferies Financial Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 77.27
| JEF Stock | USD 78.58 1.81 2.36% |
Jefferies |
Jefferies Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 77.27
The tendency of Jefferies Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 77.27 or more in 90 days |
| 78.58 | 90 days | 77.27 | about 99.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jefferies Financial to drop to $ 77.27 or more in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This Jefferies Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Jefferies Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Jefferies Financial price to stay between $ 77.27 and its current price of $78.58 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.04 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Jefferies Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Jefferies Financial Group has an alpha of 0.2455, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Jefferies Financial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Jefferies Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jefferies Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jefferies Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Jefferies Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jefferies Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jefferies Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jefferies Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jefferies Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Jefferies Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jefferies Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jefferies Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Jefferies Financial Group has about 9.7 B in cash with (1.93 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 180.91. | |
| Jefferies Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Centessa Pharmaceuticals Trading 5.6 percent Higher Time to Buy |
Jefferies Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Jefferies Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Jefferies Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jefferies Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 236.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.9 B |
Jefferies Financial Technical Analysis
Jefferies Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jefferies Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jefferies Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jefferies Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Jefferies Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Jefferies Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Jefferies Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Jefferies Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Jefferies Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Jefferies Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jefferies Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Jefferies Financial Group has about 9.7 B in cash with (1.93 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 180.91. | |
| Jefferies Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Centessa Pharmaceuticals Trading 5.6 percent Higher Time to Buy |
Check out Jefferies Financial Backtesting, Jefferies Financial Valuation, Jefferies Financial Correlation, Jefferies Financial Hype Analysis, Jefferies Financial Volatility, Jefferies Financial History as well as Jefferies Financial Performance. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Multi-Sector Holdings space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jefferies Financial. If investors know Jefferies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jefferies Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.403 | Dividend Share 1.25 | Earnings Share 2.34 | Revenue Per Share 28.582 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.424 |
The market value of Jefferies Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jefferies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jefferies Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jefferies Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jefferies Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jefferies Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jefferies Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jefferies Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jefferies Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.