JPMorgan Chase (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 141.53
| JPMC34 Stock | BRL 151.19 2.68 1.80% |
JPMorgan |
JPMorgan Chase Target Price Odds to finish below 141.53
The tendency of JPMorgan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 141.53 or more in 90 days |
| 151.19 | 90 days | 141.53 | more than 93.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JPMorgan Chase to drop to R$ 141.53 or more in 90 days from now is more than 93.0 (This JPMorgan Chase Co probability density function shows the probability of JPMorgan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JPMorgan Chase price to stay between R$ 141.53 and its current price of R$151.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon JPMorgan Chase Co has a beta of -0.36. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding JPMorgan Chase are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, JPMorgan Chase Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally JPMorgan Chase Co has an alpha of 0.3895, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). JPMorgan Chase Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for JPMorgan Chase
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JPMorgan Chase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JPMorgan Chase Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JPMorgan Chase is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JPMorgan Chase's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JPMorgan Chase Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JPMorgan Chase within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
JPMorgan Chase Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JPMorgan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JPMorgan Chase's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JPMorgan Chase's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.9 B |
JPMorgan Chase Technical Analysis
JPMorgan Chase's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JPMorgan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JPMorgan Chase Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing JPMorgan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JPMorgan Chase Predictive Forecast Models
JPMorgan Chase's time-series forecasting models is one of many JPMorgan Chase's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JPMorgan Chase's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JPMorgan Chase in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JPMorgan Chase's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JPMorgan Chase options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in JPMorgan Stock
When determining whether JPMorgan Chase is a strong investment it is important to analyze JPMorgan Chase's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact JPMorgan Chase's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding JPMorgan Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out JPMorgan Chase Backtesting, JPMorgan Chase Valuation, JPMorgan Chase Correlation, JPMorgan Chase Hype Analysis, JPMorgan Chase Volatility, JPMorgan Chase History as well as JPMorgan Chase Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.