AeroVironment (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 197.6
| JPX Stock | EUR 185.40 0.40 0.22% |
AeroVironment |
AeroVironment Target Price Odds to finish below 197.6
The tendency of AeroVironment Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 197.60 after 90 days |
| 185.40 | 90 days | 197.60 | about 76.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AeroVironment to stay under € 197.60 after 90 days from now is about 76.51 (This AeroVironment probability density function shows the probability of AeroVironment Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AeroVironment price to stay between its current price of € 185.40 and € 197.60 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.64 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon AeroVironment has a beta of 0.0254. This indicates as returns on the market go up, AeroVironment average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AeroVironment will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AeroVironment has an alpha of 0.0629, implying that it can generate a 0.0629 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AeroVironment Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AeroVironment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AeroVironment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AeroVironment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AeroVironment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AeroVironment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AeroVironment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AeroVironment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 14.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
AeroVironment Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AeroVironment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AeroVironment can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AeroVironment had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 445.73 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.19 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 141.24 M. | |
| AeroVironment has accumulated about 323.2 M in cash with (9.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 13.63. | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
AeroVironment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AeroVironment Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AeroVironment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AeroVironment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25 M |
AeroVironment Technical Analysis
AeroVironment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AeroVironment Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AeroVironment. In general, you should focus on analyzing AeroVironment Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AeroVironment Predictive Forecast Models
AeroVironment's time-series forecasting models is one of many AeroVironment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AeroVironment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AeroVironment
Checking the ongoing alerts about AeroVironment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AeroVironment help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AeroVironment had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 445.73 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.19 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 141.24 M. | |
| AeroVironment has accumulated about 323.2 M in cash with (9.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 13.63. | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AeroVironment Stock
When determining whether AeroVironment is a strong investment it is important to analyze AeroVironment's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AeroVironment's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AeroVironment Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out AeroVironment Backtesting, AeroVironment Valuation, AeroVironment Correlation, AeroVironment Hype Analysis, AeroVironment Volatility, AeroVironment History as well as AeroVironment Performance. For more detail on how to invest in AeroVironment Stock please use our How to Invest in AeroVironment guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.