JSE (South Africa) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12114.0
| JSE Stock | 12,114 107.00 0.89% |
JSE |
JSE Target Price Odds to finish below 12114.0
The tendency of JSE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 12,114 | 90 days | 12,114 | about 46.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JSE to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 46.08 (This JSE Limited probability density function shows the probability of JSE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon JSE Limited has a beta of -0.12. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding JSE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, JSE Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally JSE Limited has an alpha of 0.1598, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). JSE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for JSE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JSE Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JSE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JSE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JSE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JSE Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JSE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 458.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
JSE Technical Analysis
JSE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JSE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JSE Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing JSE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JSE Predictive Forecast Models
JSE's time-series forecasting models is one of many JSE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JSE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JSE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JSE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JSE options trading.