Kimia Farma (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 575.0
| KAEF Stock | IDR 645.00 15.00 2.38% |
Kimia |
Kimia Farma Target Price Odds to finish below 575.0
The tendency of Kimia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 575.00 or more in 90 days |
| 645.00 | 90 days | 575.00 | nearly 4.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kimia Farma to drop to 575.00 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.3 (This Kimia Farma Persero probability density function shows the probability of Kimia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kimia Farma Persero price to stay between 575.00 and its current price of 645.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Kimia Farma has a beta of 0.15. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kimia Farma average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kimia Farma Persero will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kimia Farma Persero has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Kimia Farma Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kimia Farma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kimia Farma Persero. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kimia Farma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kimia Farma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kimia Farma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kimia Farma Persero, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kimia Farma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 66.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Kimia Farma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kimia Farma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kimia Farma Persero can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kimia Farma Persero generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kimia Farma Persero has accumulated about (1.54 B) in cash recording (223.92 B) of negative cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 122.65. | |
| Roughly 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Kimia Farma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kimia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kimia Farma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kimia Farma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 748.5 B |
Kimia Farma Technical Analysis
Kimia Farma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kimia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kimia Farma Persero. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kimia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kimia Farma Predictive Forecast Models
Kimia Farma's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kimia Farma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kimia Farma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kimia Farma Persero
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kimia Farma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kimia Farma Persero help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kimia Farma Persero generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kimia Farma Persero has accumulated about (1.54 B) in cash recording (223.92 B) of negative cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 122.65. | |
| Roughly 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Kimia Stock
Kimia Farma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kimia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kimia with respect to the benefits of owning Kimia Farma security.