Kala Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.78
| KALA Stock | USD 6.55 0.12 1.87% |
Kala |
Kala Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 5.78
The tendency of Kala Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.78 or more in 90 days |
| 6.55 | 90 days | 5.78 | about 34.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kala Pharmaceuticals to drop to $ 5.78 or more in 90 days from now is about 34.56 (This Kala Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Kala Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kala Pharmaceuticals price to stay between $ 5.78 and its current price of $6.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 43.33 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Kala Pharmaceuticals has a beta of 0.36. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kala Pharmaceuticals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kala Pharmaceuticals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kala Pharmaceuticals has an alpha of 0.1324, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Kala Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kala Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kala Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kala Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kala Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kala Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kala Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kala Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Kala Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kala Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kala Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kala Pharmaceuticals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Kala Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (42.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.33 M. | |
| Kala Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 44.57 M in cash with (27.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 30.44, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Kala Pharmaceuticals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Kala Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kala Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kala Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kala Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 50.9 M |
Kala Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Kala Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kala Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kala Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kala Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kala Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Kala Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Kala Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kala Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kala Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kala Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kala Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kala Pharmaceuticals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Kala Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (42.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.33 M. | |
| Kala Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 44.57 M in cash with (27.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 30.44, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Kala Pharmaceuticals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Check out Kala Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Kala Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Kala Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Kala Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Kala Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Kala Pharmaceuticals History as well as Kala Pharmaceuticals Performance. For information on how to trade Kala Stock refer to our How to Trade Kala Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kala Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Kala will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kala Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (11.67) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets (0.40) | Return On Equity (2.48) |
The market value of Kala Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kala that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kala Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kala Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kala Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kala Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kala Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kala Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kala Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.