Karya Bersama (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.60
| KBAG Stock | IDR 18.00 2.00 10.00% |
Karya |
Karya Bersama Target Price Odds to finish below 14.60
The tendency of Karya Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 14.60 or more in 90 days |
| 18.00 | 90 days | 14.60 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Karya Bersama to drop to 14.60 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Karya Bersama Anugerah probability density function shows the probability of Karya Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Karya Bersama Anugerah price to stay between 14.60 and its current price of 18.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.89 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Karya Bersama Anugerah has a beta of -1.48. This indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Karya Bersama Anugerah are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Karya Bersama is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Karya Bersama Anugerah has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Karya Bersama Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Karya Bersama
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Karya Bersama Anugerah. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Karya Bersama Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Karya Bersama is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Karya Bersama's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Karya Bersama Anugerah, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Karya Bersama within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Karya Bersama Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Karya Bersama for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Karya Bersama Anugerah can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Karya Bersama generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Karya Bersama has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Karya Bersama has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Karya Bersama Anugerah has accumulated about 60.45 B in cash with (16.92 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.45. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Karya Bersama Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Karya Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Karya Bersama's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Karya Bersama's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.9 B |
Karya Bersama Technical Analysis
Karya Bersama's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Karya Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Karya Bersama Anugerah. In general, you should focus on analyzing Karya Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Karya Bersama Predictive Forecast Models
Karya Bersama's time-series forecasting models is one of many Karya Bersama's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Karya Bersama's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Karya Bersama Anugerah
Checking the ongoing alerts about Karya Bersama for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Karya Bersama Anugerah help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Karya Bersama generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Karya Bersama has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Karya Bersama has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Karya Bersama Anugerah has accumulated about 60.45 B in cash with (16.92 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.45. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Karya Stock
Karya Bersama financial ratios help investors to determine whether Karya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Karya with respect to the benefits of owning Karya Bersama security.