Kencana Energi (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 639.0
| KEEN Stock | IDR 635.00 15.00 2.42% |
Kencana |
Kencana Energi Target Price Odds to finish below 639.0
The tendency of Kencana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 639.00 after 90 days |
| 635.00 | 90 days | 639.00 | about 9.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kencana Energi to stay under 639.00 after 90 days from now is about 9.77 (This Kencana Energi Lestari probability density function shows the probability of Kencana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kencana Energi Lestari price to stay between its current price of 635.00 and 639.00 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Kencana Energi has a beta of 0.27. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kencana Energi average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kencana Energi Lestari will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kencana Energi Lestari has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Kencana Energi Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kencana Energi
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kencana Energi Lestari. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kencana Energi Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kencana Energi is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kencana Energi's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kencana Energi Lestari, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kencana Energi within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 26.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.29 |
Kencana Energi Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kencana Energi for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kencana Energi Lestari can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kencana Energi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kencana Energi Lestari has accumulated 79.89 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.59, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Kencana Energi Lestari has a current ratio of 0.51, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Kencana Energi until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kencana Energi's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kencana Energi Lestari sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kencana to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kencana Energi's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Kencana Energi Lestari has accumulated about 1.37 M in cash with (786.77 K) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 93.0% of Kencana Energi outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Kencana Energi Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kencana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kencana Energi's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kencana Energi's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.9 M |
Kencana Energi Technical Analysis
Kencana Energi's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kencana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kencana Energi Lestari. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kencana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kencana Energi Predictive Forecast Models
Kencana Energi's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kencana Energi's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kencana Energi's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kencana Energi Lestari
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kencana Energi for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kencana Energi Lestari help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kencana Energi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kencana Energi Lestari has accumulated 79.89 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.59, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Kencana Energi Lestari has a current ratio of 0.51, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Kencana Energi until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kencana Energi's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kencana Energi Lestari sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kencana to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kencana Energi's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Kencana Energi Lestari has accumulated about 1.37 M in cash with (786.77 K) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 93.0% of Kencana Energi outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Kencana Stock
Kencana Energi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kencana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kencana with respect to the benefits of owning Kencana Energi security.