KGHM Polska (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 113.06
| KGH Stock | 130.30 0.50 0.39% |
KGHM |
KGHM Polska Target Price Odds to finish below 113.06
The tendency of KGHM Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 113.06 or more in 90 days |
| 130.30 | 90 days | 113.06 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KGHM Polska to drop to 113.06 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This KGHM Polska Miedz probability density function shows the probability of KGHM Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of KGHM Polska Miedz price to stay between 113.06 and its current price of 130.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.15 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon KGHM Polska has a beta of 0.25. This indicates as returns on the market go up, KGHM Polska average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding KGHM Polska Miedz will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally KGHM Polska Miedz has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. KGHM Polska Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for KGHM Polska
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KGHM Polska Miedz. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KGHM Polska's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KGHM Polska Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KGHM Polska is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KGHM Polska's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KGHM Polska Miedz, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KGHM Polska within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
KGHM Polska Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of KGHM Polska for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for KGHM Polska Miedz can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| KGHM Polska Miedz generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 32.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
KGHM Polska Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of KGHM Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential KGHM Polska's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KGHM Polska's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 200 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
KGHM Polska Technical Analysis
KGHM Polska's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. KGHM Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KGHM Polska Miedz. In general, you should focus on analyzing KGHM Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
KGHM Polska Predictive Forecast Models
KGHM Polska's time-series forecasting models is one of many KGHM Polska's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary KGHM Polska's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about KGHM Polska Miedz
Checking the ongoing alerts about KGHM Polska for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for KGHM Polska Miedz help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| KGHM Polska Miedz generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 32.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for KGHM Stock Analysis
When running KGHM Polska's price analysis, check to measure KGHM Polska's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KGHM Polska is operating at the current time. Most of KGHM Polska's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KGHM Polska's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KGHM Polska's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KGHM Polska to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.