KraneShares MSCI (UK) Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 17.82
| KGNP Etf | 17.79 0.44 2.41% |
KraneShares |
KraneShares MSCI Target Price Odds to finish below 17.82
The tendency of KraneShares Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 17.82 after 90 days |
| 17.79 | 90 days | 17.82 | about 62.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KraneShares MSCI to stay under 17.82 after 90 days from now is about 62.56 (This KraneShares MSCI China probability density function shows the probability of KraneShares Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of KraneShares MSCI China price to stay between its current price of 17.79 and 17.82 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon KraneShares MSCI China has a beta of -0.17. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding KraneShares MSCI are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, KraneShares MSCI China is likely to outperform the market. Additionally KraneShares MSCI China has an alpha of 0.2899, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). KraneShares MSCI Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for KraneShares MSCI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KraneShares MSCI China. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.KraneShares MSCI Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KraneShares MSCI is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KraneShares MSCI's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KraneShares MSCI China, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KraneShares MSCI within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
KraneShares MSCI Technical Analysis
KraneShares MSCI's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. KraneShares Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KraneShares MSCI China. In general, you should focus on analyzing KraneShares Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
KraneShares MSCI Predictive Forecast Models
KraneShares MSCI's time-series forecasting models is one of many KraneShares MSCI's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary KraneShares MSCI's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards KraneShares MSCI in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, KraneShares MSCI's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from KraneShares MSCI options trading.