LEWAG HOLDING (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.10
| KGR Stock | EUR 26.00 9.00 25.71% |
LEWAG |
LEWAG HOLDING Target Price Odds to finish over 19.10
The tendency of LEWAG Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 19.10 in 90 days |
| 26.00 | 90 days | 19.10 | about 22.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LEWAG HOLDING to stay above € 19.10 in 90 days from now is about 22.17 (This LEWAG HOLDING AG probability density function shows the probability of LEWAG Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LEWAG HOLDING AG price to stay between € 19.10 and its current price of €26.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.85 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, LEWAG HOLDING will likely underperform. Moreover LEWAG HOLDING AG has an alpha of 1.6193, implying that it can generate a 1.62 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). LEWAG HOLDING Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for LEWAG HOLDING
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LEWAG HOLDING AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LEWAG HOLDING Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LEWAG HOLDING is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LEWAG HOLDING's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LEWAG HOLDING AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LEWAG HOLDING within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.62 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.85 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
LEWAG HOLDING Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LEWAG HOLDING for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LEWAG HOLDING AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LEWAG HOLDING AG is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| LEWAG HOLDING AG appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
LEWAG HOLDING Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LEWAG Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LEWAG HOLDING's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LEWAG HOLDING's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0273 | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 10.8 M |
LEWAG HOLDING Technical Analysis
LEWAG HOLDING's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LEWAG Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LEWAG HOLDING AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing LEWAG Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LEWAG HOLDING Predictive Forecast Models
LEWAG HOLDING's time-series forecasting models is one of many LEWAG HOLDING's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LEWAG HOLDING's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LEWAG HOLDING AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about LEWAG HOLDING for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LEWAG HOLDING AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LEWAG HOLDING AG is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| LEWAG HOLDING AG appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Other Information on Investing in LEWAG Stock
LEWAG HOLDING financial ratios help investors to determine whether LEWAG Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in LEWAG with respect to the benefits of owning LEWAG HOLDING security.