Kumba Iron (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 29209.32
| KIO Stock | 33,257 79.00 0.24% |
Kumba |
Kumba Iron Target Price Odds to finish below 29209.32
The tendency of Kumba Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 29,209 or more in 90 days |
| 33,257 | 90 days | 29,209 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kumba Iron to drop to 29,209 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Kumba Iron Ore probability density function shows the probability of Kumba Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kumba Iron Ore price to stay between 29,209 and its current price of 33257.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.7 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Kumba Iron has a beta of 0.45. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kumba Iron average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kumba Iron Ore will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kumba Iron Ore has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Kumba Iron Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kumba Iron
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kumba Iron Ore. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kumba Iron Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kumba Iron is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kumba Iron's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kumba Iron Ore, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kumba Iron within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1,998 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Kumba Iron Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kumba Iron for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kumba Iron Ore can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kumba Iron Ore generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Kumba Iron Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kumba Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kumba Iron's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kumba Iron's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 321.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.7 B |
Kumba Iron Technical Analysis
Kumba Iron's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kumba Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kumba Iron Ore. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kumba Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kumba Iron Predictive Forecast Models
Kumba Iron's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kumba Iron's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kumba Iron's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kumba Iron Ore
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kumba Iron for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kumba Iron Ore help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kumba Iron Ore generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Kumba Stock
Kumba Iron financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kumba Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kumba with respect to the benefits of owning Kumba Iron security.