KENYA ORCHARDS (Kenya) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 81.67
| KOL Stock | 70.00 0.00 0.00% |
KENYA |
KENYA ORCHARDS Target Price Odds to finish below 81.67
The tendency of KENYA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 81.67 after 90 days |
| 70.00 | 90 days | 81.67 | more than 93.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KENYA ORCHARDS to stay under 81.67 after 90 days from now is more than 93.0 (This KENYA ORCHARDS LTD probability density function shows the probability of KENYA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of KENYA ORCHARDS LTD price to stay between its current price of 70.00 and 81.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon KENYA ORCHARDS LTD has a beta of -0.29. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding KENYA ORCHARDS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, KENYA ORCHARDS LTD is likely to outperform the market. In addition to that KENYA ORCHARDS LTD has an alpha of 2.0708, implying that it can generate a 2.07 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). KENYA ORCHARDS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for KENYA ORCHARDS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KENYA ORCHARDS LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KENYA ORCHARDS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KENYA ORCHARDS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KENYA ORCHARDS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KENYA ORCHARDS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KENYA ORCHARDS LTD, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KENYA ORCHARDS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 2.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 23.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.44 |
KENYA ORCHARDS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of KENYA ORCHARDS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for KENYA ORCHARDS LTD can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| KENYA ORCHARDS LTD appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
KENYA ORCHARDS Technical Analysis
KENYA ORCHARDS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. KENYA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KENYA ORCHARDS LTD. In general, you should focus on analyzing KENYA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
KENYA ORCHARDS Predictive Forecast Models
KENYA ORCHARDS's time-series forecasting models is one of many KENYA ORCHARDS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary KENYA ORCHARDS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about KENYA ORCHARDS LTD
Checking the ongoing alerts about KENYA ORCHARDS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for KENYA ORCHARDS LTD help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| KENYA ORCHARDS LTD appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |