Lumber Futures Commodity Probability of Future Commodity Price Finishing Under 561.0
| LBUSD Commodity | 589.00 0.50 0.09% |
Lumber |
Lumber Futures Target Price Odds to finish below 561.0
The tendency of Lumber Commodity price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 561.00 or more in 90 days |
| 589.00 | 90 days | 561.00 | about 72.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lumber Futures to drop to 561.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 72.14 (This Lumber Futures probability density function shows the probability of Lumber Commodity to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lumber Futures price to stay between 561.00 and its current price of 589.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.82 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Lumber Futures has a beta of 0.11. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Lumber Futures average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Lumber Futures will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Lumber Futures has an alpha of 0.2479, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lumber Futures Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Lumber Futures
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumber Futures. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumber Futures' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lumber Futures Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lumber Futures is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lumber Futures' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lumber Futures, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lumber Futures within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 37.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Lumber Futures Technical Analysis
Lumber Futures' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lumber Commodity technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lumber Futures. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lumber Commodity price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lumber Futures Predictive Forecast Models
Lumber Futures' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lumber Futures' commodity analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lumber Futures' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the commodity market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lumber Futures in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lumber Futures' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lumber Futures options trading.