ASPEN PHARUNADR (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 8.35
| LDZU Stock | EUR 8.75 0.25 2.94% |
ASPEN |
ASPEN PHARUNADR Target Price Odds to finish over 8.35
The tendency of ASPEN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 8.35 in 90 days |
| 8.75 | 90 days | 8.35 | about 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASPEN PHARUNADR to stay above € 8.35 in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 probability density function shows the probability of ASPEN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 price to stay between € 8.35 and its current price of €8.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ASPEN PHARUNADR has a beta of 0.069. This indicates as returns on the market go up, ASPEN PHARUNADR average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ASPEN PHARUNADR Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ASPEN PHARUNADR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASPEN PHARUNADR 1. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASPEN PHARUNADR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASPEN PHARUNADR Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASPEN PHARUNADR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASPEN PHARUNADR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASPEN PHARUNADR 1, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASPEN PHARUNADR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
ASPEN PHARUNADR Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASPEN PHARUNADR for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 has accumulated 24.87 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.38, which is about average as compared to similar companies. ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ASPEN PHARUNADR until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ASPEN PHARUNADR's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ASPEN to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ASPEN PHARUNADR's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
ASPEN PHARUNADR Technical Analysis
ASPEN PHARUNADR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASPEN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASPEN PHARUNADR 1. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASPEN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ASPEN PHARUNADR Predictive Forecast Models
ASPEN PHARUNADR's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASPEN PHARUNADR's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASPEN PHARUNADR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ASPEN PHARUNADR 1
Checking the ongoing alerts about ASPEN PHARUNADR for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 has accumulated 24.87 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.38, which is about average as compared to similar companies. ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ASPEN PHARUNADR until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ASPEN PHARUNADR's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ASPEN PHARUNADR 1 sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ASPEN to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ASPEN PHARUNADR's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in ASPEN Stock
ASPEN PHARUNADR financial ratios help investors to determine whether ASPEN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ASPEN with respect to the benefits of owning ASPEN PHARUNADR security.