Lyxor Index (Germany) Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 88.41
| LIGS Etf | EUR 116.84 0.44 0.38% |
Lyxor |
Lyxor Index Target Price Odds to finish below 88.41
The tendency of Lyxor Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 88.41 or more in 90 days |
| 116.84 | 90 days | 88.41 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lyxor Index to drop to € 88.41 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Lyxor Index Fund probability density function shows the probability of Lyxor Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lyxor Index Fund price to stay between € 88.41 and its current price of €116.84 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.8 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Lyxor Index Fund has a beta of -0.11. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Lyxor Index are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Lyxor Index Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Lyxor Index Fund has an alpha of 0.0903, implying that it can generate a 0.0903 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lyxor Index Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Lyxor Index
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lyxor Index Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lyxor Index's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lyxor Index Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lyxor Index is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lyxor Index's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lyxor Index Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lyxor Index within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Lyxor Index Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lyxor Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lyxor Index's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lyxor Index's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Lyxor Index Technical Analysis
Lyxor Index's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lyxor Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lyxor Index Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lyxor Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lyxor Index Predictive Forecast Models
Lyxor Index's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lyxor Index's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lyxor Index's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lyxor Index in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lyxor Index's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lyxor Index options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Lyxor Etf
Lyxor Index financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lyxor Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lyxor with respect to the benefits of owning Lyxor Index security.