Lightinthebox Holding Co Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.84
| LITB Stock | USD 1.88 0.08 4.08% |
LightInTheBox |
LightInTheBox Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 29.84
The tendency of LightInTheBox Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 29.84 or more in 90 days |
| 1.88 | 90 days | 29.84 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LightInTheBox Holding to move over $ 29.84 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This LightInTheBox Holding Co probability density function shows the probability of LightInTheBox Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LightInTheBox Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 1.88 and $ 29.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.37 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days LightInTheBox Holding has a beta of 0.0874. This indicates as returns on the market go up, LightInTheBox Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding LightInTheBox Holding Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally LightInTheBox Holding Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. LightInTheBox Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for LightInTheBox Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LightInTheBox Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LightInTheBox Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LightInTheBox Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LightInTheBox Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LightInTheBox Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LightInTheBox Holding Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LightInTheBox Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.81 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
LightInTheBox Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LightInTheBox Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LightInTheBox Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LightInTheBox Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| LightInTheBox Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| LightInTheBox Holding may become a speculative penny stock | |
| LightInTheBox Holding Co currently holds 7 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.23, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. LightInTheBox Holding has a current ratio of 0.71, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about LightInTheBox Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 629.43 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.59 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 275.08 M. | |
| LightInTheBox Holding Co currently holds about 62.12 M in cash with (20.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| LightInTheBox Holding has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 41.0% of LightInTheBox Holding outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: LightInTheBox Holding Co Owner Earnings per Shar - GuruFocus.com |
LightInTheBox Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LightInTheBox Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LightInTheBox Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LightInTheBox Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 113 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 66.4 M |
LightInTheBox Holding Technical Analysis
LightInTheBox Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LightInTheBox Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LightInTheBox Holding Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing LightInTheBox Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LightInTheBox Holding Predictive Forecast Models
LightInTheBox Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many LightInTheBox Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LightInTheBox Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LightInTheBox Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about LightInTheBox Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LightInTheBox Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LightInTheBox Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| LightInTheBox Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| LightInTheBox Holding may become a speculative penny stock | |
| LightInTheBox Holding Co currently holds 7 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.23, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. LightInTheBox Holding has a current ratio of 0.71, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about LightInTheBox Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 629.43 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.59 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 275.08 M. | |
| LightInTheBox Holding Co currently holds about 62.12 M in cash with (20.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| LightInTheBox Holding has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 41.0% of LightInTheBox Holding outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: LightInTheBox Holding Co Owner Earnings per Shar - GuruFocus.com |
Check out LightInTheBox Holding Backtesting, LightInTheBox Holding Valuation, LightInTheBox Holding Correlation, LightInTheBox Holding Hype Analysis, LightInTheBox Holding Volatility, LightInTheBox Holding History as well as LightInTheBox Holding Performance. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LightInTheBox Holding. If investors know LightInTheBox will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LightInTheBox Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.054 | Earnings Share (0.36) | Revenue Per Share 23.12 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.64) | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of LightInTheBox Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LightInTheBox that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LightInTheBox Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LightInTheBox Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LightInTheBox Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LightInTheBox Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LightInTheBox Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LightInTheBox Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LightInTheBox Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.